Forecast and Monitoring

Filter by Date (yyyy-mm-dd)

Eastern Nile Flood Prone & River Locations

In the Eastern Nile basin

During the rainy season flood levels and rainfall conditions are monitored daily in the flood prone areas. Rainfall is monitored at meteorological stations and validated against satellite-based earth observations. In addition, flows and water levels are monitored at hydrological stations.These regular monitoring activities support validation and quality control of flood forecasts produced with the Eastern Nile Flood Forecast and Early Warning System (EN-FFEWS).

Flood forecasts are carried out for

Lake Tana
Blue Nile
Baro-Akobo-Sobat (BAS)
Tekeze-Setit-Atbara (TSA) sub-basins

The forecasts use as input rainfall forecastsfrom the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. WRF is a regional customization with inputs from NCEP’s (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) Global Forecast System (GFS). On this basis, peak runoff and peak floodwater levels are simulated with hydrological and hydrodynamic models. The forecast results are managed with MIKE Operations, a flood forecasting system with customized solutions for data integration, analysis of forecasts, results visualizations and dissemination of flood warnings.

The three days lead-time forecast results are disseminated using

The Eastern Nile web page, as well as
SMS and e-mail to different users and concerned stakeholders, such as communities, local and national flood communities and humanitarian organizations among others. With this, effective flood response actions can be carried out in the flood affected communities in due time.

Rainfall is forecasted for the next 3 days lead-time (72 hours) with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The WRF model is a regional customization for the EN with global input from NCEP’s (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) GFS (Global Forecast System) to provide initial and boundary conditions. WRF produces 3-day forecasts with a spatial resolution of 6 km, and the forecasts are updated in daily basis.

The floods in the Eastern Nile region are forecasted with the Eastern Nile Flood Forecast Early Warning System (EN-FFEWS). The EN-FFEWS is a software platform that has the purpose to integrate operation and planning tools and models with near-real-time, forecasted and historical observed data. It interfaces to the rainfall forecast system and integrates rainfall-runoff models for the four sub-basins and hydrodynamic models for the flood affected river courses in these basins. Forecasts are produced every 6 hours. When a model run is completed, results are published in the Eastern Nile web page. If forecasted flows and water levels in flood prone river reaches exceed pre-defined threshold values, warnings are disseminated automatically to users and stakeholders by SMS or e-mail.

The flood forecasts are made for the Lake Tana basin which is located upstream of the Blue Nile river. The flood waters from the are drained to lake Tanapassing Denbia and Fogera floodprone areas. Dirma, Megech, Gumera and Ribb rivers convey the flood water to the lake. The Blue Nile basin encompasses the catchments that drain into the Blue Nile river between Lake Tana and Khartoum. Relevant sub-basins in this basin are those of the rivers Dinder and Rahad.The Tekeze-Setit-Atabara basin head is in the northern highlands of Ethiopia and its outlet is at the confluence of the Atbara river and the Main Nile near Atbara. Finally, the Baro-Akobo-Sobat basin encompasses the catchments of the Baro and Akobo rivers upstream as well as those of the Sobat River in South Sudan to White Nile confluence. The upstream catchments of the Baro towards to the east of the basin are high elevation with good forest cover whereas the lower part of the Baro however is flat.

Cloud to Street’s flood satellite-based monitoring system provides near real-time flood and dynamic risk analytics. It provides a basis for verifying flood forecasts and the flood maps. The application of this satellite flood technology supports:

Verifying flood forecasts with observations to make sure that inaccurate forecasts can be called off,
Including flood extent maps and impact statistics in weekly bulletins,
Emergency activated high-resolution flood impact analytics for response,
Calculating increased accuracy of the new forecast model, and
Producing additional flood maps for flood models in new areas.

Flood Forecast and Early Warning System

River Flow Forecast System

Drought Forecast and Early Warning System

Eastern Nile Flood Prone & River Locations

In the Eastern Nile basin

Flood forecasts are carried out for

The three days lead-time forecast results are disseminated using

Flood Mapping

Reports

Flood Bulletins

Flood Season reports

Support